Business Case 03 · M&A · Industrial Growth

Acquire a competitor or continue growing organically?

An established company sees a chance to accelerate scale, market access and capabilities through an acquisition. But an available target is not, in itself, an acquisition thesis. The question is whether buying it creates more long-term value than putting the same financial and organisational resources into organic growth.

Nature of the case

A composite, illustrative case; not a Mizzau & Partners engagement.

The strategic context

The company builds machinery and components for industrial customers, with a large installed base at home and an export presence built mainly through distributors. Its plan is to grow abroad and to raise the share of aftermarket revenue — spare parts, service, upgrades — which today is smaller than the installed base would justify.

A smaller competitor, strong in a region where the company is weak, may be open to a transaction. It has a partly complementary range, more advanced control technology and an established service organisation. There is also an organic alternative: open a sales subsidiary in the same region and develop the missing technology in-house.

Management believes an acquisition could advance several objectives at once:

  • geographic expansion
  • technology
  • a broader product range
  • access to new customers
  • scale
  • recurring and aftermarket revenue
  • specialised capabilities

Yet the same management team would have to run the integration while delivering the organic plan already under way. That capacity is finite, and how it is used is part of the decision.

A target should not define the strategy. The industrial strategy should determine whether a target is relevant.

The acquisition thesis

The industrial thesis comes before valuation. If the answers to these five questions do not hold, no price makes the transaction coherent.

  1. Strategic fit

    Why does the asset belong in the future industrial perimeter?

    Operating in the same sector is not enough; it must strengthen the way the company intends to compete.

  2. Value creation

    Where would the incremental value come from?

    Revenue, margin, capital or capabilities: each source needs to be identified and made testable.

  3. Capabilities

    What does the target provide that would be hard or slow to build internally?

    Technology, customer relationships, people and a service organisation take very different lengths of time to build.

  4. Timing

    Why is acquiring now preferable?

    The window may be real — or it may simply be the seller's timetable.

  5. Ownership advantage

    Why own the asset rather than partner with it or compete against it?

    If the value can be captured through an agreement, control may not be necessary.

The thesis precedes the valuation. A valuation built before the thesis tends to justify the price rather than the decision.

Build or buy?

Three paths can each reach the same industrial objective, to different degrees. They are not listed in order of preference.

  1. A — Organic growth

    A sales subsidiary in the region, in-house technology development, a service capability built step by step.

  2. B — Acquisition

    Buying the competitor, with customers, technology, people and organisation already in place.

  3. C — Commercial or industrial partnership

    A distribution, licensing or co-development agreement, or a joint venture, without acquiring control.

Build or buy?
DimensionAOrganicBAcquisitionCPartnership
Time to marketLonger: customers, people and reputation have to be built.Potentially immediate within the acquired perimeter, once the transaction is complete.In between: depends on how fast the agreement is negotiated and launched.
Upfront capitalSpread over time and adjustable.Concentrated: consideration, transaction costs and early integration spend.Limited, unless joint-venture equity or investment commitments are involved.
Execution complexityOperational and continuous, within the existing organisation.High and concentrated: two organisations to combine.Contractual and relational: aligning two independent parties.
ControlFull.Full over the acquired perimeter, once completed.Shared, and limited to what the agreement provides.
Access to capabilitiesTo be built; some may take years or prove impossible to replicate.Immediate on paper; real only if people and know-how stay.Partial, and subject to the partner's terms.
Integration requirementNone beyond organisational growth.Substantial: systems, processes, culture, governance.Confined to the interfaces the agreement defines.
Customer accessHas to be won, often against established incumbents.Fast, if relationships transfer and customers stay.Through the partner's network, with the dependency that implies.
Technology accessIn-house development: time and technical risk sit with the company.Direct, but it must be integrated into the existing range.Through licence or co-development, with restrictions on use.
Organisational burdenGradual, but prolonged.Intense in the early years, competing with the rest of the plan.Moderate, but ongoing in managing the relationship.
ReversibilityHigh: initiatives can be slowed or redefined.Low: an acquisition is hard to unwind without losing value.In between: depends on term, exclusivity and exit provisions.

The comparison names no winner. It clarifies what is gained by giving up control, and what is paid — in capital, time and reversibility — to obtain it.

Value creation logic

The potential value of the transaction has to be broken down by source. Each item is a hypothesis to be tested, with an owner, a timeframe and a cost of delivery.

  • Revenue

    • cross-selling across both customer bases
    • geographic expansion
    • new customer access
    • complementary products
  • Margin and operations

    • procurement
    • production
    • industrial footprint
    • shared functions
    • operating leverage
  • Capital and strategy

    • scale
    • market positioning
    • recurring revenue
    • strategic optionality
  • Capabilities

    • management
    • technology
    • intellectual property
    • distribution
    • specialised talent

Synergies remain hypotheses until they have been validated.

Revenue synergies depend on customer behaviour and are usually the least certain; cost synergies are more controllable but require organisational decisions and time. Treating projected synergies as value already secured means building them into the price and handing them to the seller, while the buyer keeps the risk of delivering them.

Pre-deal testing of this kind is examined in the strategic question How can you tell whether an acquisition really creates value?

Execution and integration risk

Most of the value in an acquisition is created, or lost, after signing.

Purchase price ≠ total investment.

The real investment

  1. purchase consideration
  2. transaction costs
  3. integration investment
  4. working-capital requirements
  5. management attention
  6. execution risk

The last two items appear in no contract, yet they often decide the outcome.

Areas of risk

  • Management bandwidth

    Whoever leads the integration stops leading something else; the organic plan may slow.

  • Integration capability

    A company without acquisition experience has to build method and team while integrating.

  • Cultural compatibility

    Different decision-making habits and management styles affect whether key people stay.

  • Customer retention

    A change of ownership can prompt customers to review suppliers, especially if they compete with the buyer.

  • Key-person dependency

    Technology and relationships may sit with a few individuals rather than the organisation.

  • Technology integration

    Platforms, control systems and ERP may not be compatible.

  • Operational disruption

    Consolidating sites, suppliers or processes puts quality and delivery at risk.

  • Working capital

    Different commercial and inventory policies can absorb more cash than expected.

  • Leverage

    If the deal is debt-funded, it reduces the headroom available for the rest of the plan.

  • Synergy execution

    Each synergy needs decisions, investment and time that must be planned and owned.

  • Governance

    Roles, authority and reporting need to be settled before closing, not after.

The Mizzau & Partners perspective

An attractive target is not, by itself, a reason to acquire.

The acquisition should be the consequence of an industrial thesis, not its starting point. Each step has to hold before the next one makes sense.

Decision sequence

  1. 01Industrial strategyWhere and how the company intends to compete, and which objectives call for a step change.
  2. 02Capability gapWhat, concretely, is missing to deliver the strategy: markets, technology, customers, people.
  3. 03Build / buy / partnerWhich route closes the gap with the best balance of time, capital, control and reversibility.
  4. 04Target fitOnly if the route is acquisition: whether this target closes that gap better than the alternatives.
  5. 05Value creation thesisWhich sources of value, testable, at what cost and over what timeframe.
  6. 06Financial capacityWhether the total investment is sustainable without compromising the rest of the plan.
  7. 07Integration readinessWhether the organisation has the people, method and governance to integrate.
  8. 08Transaction decisionOnly then: proceed, renegotiate, defer or walk away.

What separates this from a transaction-led approach is the starting point. A process that begins with the target measures the deal; a process that begins with the strategy asks whether the deal is needed at all. Walking away can be the right outcome of a well-run analysis.

Our work on capital decisions and extraordinary transactions is described under Private Capital Advisory.

Board questions

Before a transaction is launched, the board should be able to answer these questions.

  1. Which industrial objective makes the acquisition necessary?
  2. Could we reach the same result organically?
  3. How long would it take to build these capabilities ourselves?
  4. How much of the value genuinely depends on combining the two businesses?
  5. Which synergies can be verified, and which remain assumptions?
  6. Do we have the management capacity to integrate the target?
  7. What does the transaction cost in total, beyond the purchase price?
  8. Does the acquisition widen or narrow our strategic options?

Further reading